When Voters Start Siting Data Centers, the Risk Map Changes

Real Estate Insights. Success Mindset. One Step at a Time.

Issue #54 | June 7, 2025

🧠 Market Insights

When Voters Start Siting Data Centers, the Risk Map Changes

Monterey Park, California did something last Tuesday that nobody had done before. Voters passed Measure NDC by 86 percent. Not a council vote. Not a temporary moratorium. A permanent, citywide ban on data centers, written into law by ballot referendum and reversible only by another public vote.

That is a new weapon in the opposition toolkit. And the timing could not be more pointed.

Until now, the fight over data center siting played out in city halls and state legislatures, where developers could lobby, negotiate, and wait out political cycles. Ballot measures do not work that way. An 86 percent margin does not leave much room to negotiate.

The mechanism is spreading fast. Ohio currently has a citizen signature drive underway seeking a constitutional amendment that would ban data centers with a peak load above 25 megawatts statewide. They need 413,000 signatures from 44 of 88 counties by July 1. As of the latest count, they are well short, but the effort itself signals something important: communities are not waiting for their legislators anymore.

Legislative and regulatory risk has off-ramps. You can lobby, negotiate, wait out a political cycle. A citizen ballot measure does not work that way. 86 percent does not leave a room to work the phones.

Dirt Dawg Take: The ballot box is a different category of risk than regulatory or legislative. You can lobby a council. You can negotiate with a planning department. You can wait out a political cycle. You cannot work the phones after an 86 percent vote. The question for any data center land play right now is not just whether the site is ready. It is whether the market is politically stable enough to close, and then stable enough to build. You can get a deal done and still be dead in the water if a citizen initiative lands while you are 18 months into entitlements. Underwrite the political timeline, not just the development timeline.

✨ The Alpha Effect

Correct and Continue.

Most people see a ballot measure pass at 86 percent and they freeze. Or they exit. That is a first-order reaction to a first-order headline.

Alphas correct and continue.78 jurisdictions out of thousands across this country have active restrictions. That is noise if you let it be noise. The opportunity did not disappear. The geography shifted. Your job is to move with it, not get dragged down by the headlines.

The ballot box is a new risk category. You cannot lobby it. You cannot negotiate it. You cannot wait it out. So you don’t fight it. You redirect. Fast. With urgency. That is what entrepreneurs do. They do not overreact to every headline and they do not pretend the risk is not real. They assess, they correct, and they get moving.

New York is pausing. California just made a permanent ban stick. Meanwhile, Amazon is writing billion-dollar checks in Louisiana. Virginia is the largest data center market on earth and is still open for business. The Carolinas are actively competing for this capital.

The only question that matters right now is simple:

Where can I get it done?

Go find that market. Then get moving.

🚀 One Step at a Time

Action Steps This Week

1. Audit Your Regulatory Risk Layer. For any land position you hold or are targeting in the data center space, add a new column to your underwriting: ballot-initiative risk. Check whether the state allows citizen-initiated ballot measures. Look for active opposition groups. Check the U.S. Data Center Moratorium Tracker. This is not a reason to walk away. It is a reason to know what you are holding.

2. Map the Counter-Trend Markets. Moratoriums are tightening supply in coastal, high-regulation states. That is a pricing signal for the markets that remain open. The Carolinas, Louisiana, Georgia, and parts of Texas are still aggressive on data center attraction. If your land sits in or near those corridors, your position may have just improved. Get current on incentive programs and available power capacity in your target geography.

3. Know Your Risk Map. Start with the U.S. Data Center Moratorium Tracker to see what is active in your target markets. Then grab the Dirt Dawg Data Center Heatmap for the full picture. We update it every two weeks, so you always know where the doors are open and where they are closing. Not connected yet? Follow me and drop the DDI Heatmap in the comments, and I will get it to you directly.

Small steps compound. Regulatory risk is real, but it is also a filter that concentrates value in the dirt that is already ready.

Here's to building your success, one step at a time...

from the dirt up.

Kris "Dirt Dawg" McGee 🐾